Amsterdam/Düsseldorf, March 20, 2026 – Europe’s logistics rental markets are approaching a turning point: following moderate declines at the start of 2025, rental conditions stabilised as the year progressed. In many markets, this adjustment was driven less by falling nominal rents than by rental incentives – such as rent-free periods. Towards the end of the year, a growing number of European markets returned to stability or even moderate growth. Against this backdrop – with structurally limited supply and scarce available space – core markets such as Germany and the Netherlands are well positioned for a recovery in 2026.
This is shown by the new Prologis Logistics Rent Index 2025, which analyses trends in net effective rents across the key logistics real estate markets in North America, Europe, Asia and Latin America.
The year 2025 brought new challenges for global supply chains, but logistics occupiers adapted by focusing on long-term supply chain needs, escalating demand through the year. Rents reflected this dynamic: in the first half of the year, rents declined by 2.3% as customers paused leasing decision-making, awaiting clarity around economic conditions and trade policy. By the third quarter, sentiment began to shift. Long-term planning reemerged as customers moved forward with leasing decisions and looked through the noise of ongoing volatility. Rent declines slowed to -1.4% in the second half of the year. This shift marks a critical transition period for occupiers, operators, investors and developers as planning for 2026 accelerates.
2025 Rent Growth
Global: -3.7 % USA/Canada: -4.9 % Europe: -2.9 %
Key takeaways of the Prologis Rent Index 2025
- Repricing slowed through the year as market fundamentals stabilized..
- Cost sensitivity shaped location decisions across global markets.
- A wide gap between market rents and replacement-cost rents constrained new supply.
- Healthy demand proved more important to rent resilience than vacancy alone.
Europe
Rents declined 2.9% year over year as landlords increased concessions to raise occupancy. Concessions have doubled from pandemic-era lows, reflecting normalization and a corrective response to softer market conditions. Weakness was concentrated in high-operating-cost markets and those with elevated recent deliveries and vacancies, including Poland, Slovakia and Sweden. Several Southern European markets, including Italy and Spain, recorded positive rent growth through 2025, achieving cumulative five-year gains in line with the broader European average.
Rental declines in Europe were concentrated in the first half of 2025, with the fourth quarter showing flat-to-modest growth signaling an inflection point. Vacancy should tighten alongside fewer new deliveries in 2026. In turn, this should put upward pressure on rents, led by markets where vacancies are relatively low, the pipeline is very limited and even small increases in demand can reintroduce competition for scarce space (e.g., Netherlands, Germany).
Top 10 Rent Growth Markets, Europe
1 Valencia
2 Barcelona
3 Marseille
4 Madrid
5 Rome
6 Milan
7 Munich
8 Lyon
9 Hamburg
10 Frankfurt-Rhein-Neckar
Rent development in Germany
Germany saw moderate declines in rents in 2025, characterised by a greater reliance on incentives in leasing, coupled with weaker tenant demand. Uncertainty surrounding the domestic budget – driven by fiscal constraints and delayed public spending decisions – weighed on business confidence and leasing activity throughout the year. Performance varied by market: locations with greater land availability, including parts of eastern Germany such as Berlin, recorded the largest net effective rent declines. Markets with structurally low vacancy rates, such as Frankfurt and Munich, by contrast, saw a more moderate correction – supported by more robust fundamentals. Looking ahead, vacancy rates remain low, and new supply is limited and predominantly user- or client-specific (build-to-suit). With a gradual improvement in demand conditions, these factors are likely to support stabilisation and facilitate a return to rental growth in the second half of 2026.
Björn Thiemann, Senior Vice President and Regional Head Northern Europe, says:
“For Northern Europe, short-term fluctuations are not the main issue. Rather, the focus is on creating supply. Land availability, infrastructure and the realities of the planning process set the pace – particularly in Germany and the Netherlands. These structural conditions explain the stabilising trends in the core markets and highlight why the next phase of growth will be defined primarily by quality and location.”
About the Prologis Logistics Rent Index
The Prologis Logistics Rent Index, launched in 2015, analyses trends in net effective rents across the key logistics real estate markets in North America, Europe, Asia and Latin America. The company’s proprietary methodology focuses on rental rates for logistics facilities, net of concessions.
The Prologis Rent Index combines expert local market insights with proprietary data to analyze net effective rental growth trends across North America, Europe, Asia and Latin America. Regional and global rates are weighted by market revenue (market stock multiplied by the average rental rate).
You can find the complete Logistics Rent Index here.
